A million applicants predicted for Higher Education by the end of the decade

A million applicants predicted for Higher Education by the end of the decade 20 April 2023

UCAS predicts that there could be up to a million Higher Education applicants in a single year in 2030, up from almost three quarters of a million today.

This figure is largely a result of a growing 18-year-old population looking to progress through education and training as well as an increase in the number of non-EU applicants.

UCAS, the Universities and Colleges Admissions Service, believes that the advent and growth of T Levels, Higher Technical Qualifications and Degree Apprenticeships has created a stronger and more linear technical education progression route that is predicted to continue and contribute to the Higher Education applicant figures.

UCAS says this significant growth in demand will present challenges and opportunities across the entire student lifecycle - from application to enrolment, completion and employment. Leading educationalists believe this projected 30% increase in demand for Higher Education may mean universities and colleges will need to expand, and post-secondary choices may need to be considered differently as competition for places intensifies.

In response to its projections, UCAS is launching a national debate - highlighting the key challenges and opportunities created by increased demand during this potential Journey to a Million. A series of 50 publications over the next few months will explore five key challenges:

How do we continue to widen participation?
What are the answers to the imbalance of supply and demand?
How do we support students in a more competitive environment?
How do we promote the full range of choices to students?
What is the future student experience?

In one of the first publications, Dr Jo Saxton, Ofqual Chief regulator looks at what the Journey to a Million means for qualification pathways to higher education. The Chief Regulator stresses the importance of parity between academic and vocational qualifications: “No route is better, or more important, than another...but rather which is the right qualification for the individual”.

The Journey to a Million debate comes at the same time as reports that almost 20,000 students have withdrawn from undergraduate courses in the UK so far this academic year. Data from the Student Loans Company shows that 18,280 undergraduate students withdrew from their courses between the start of the 2022-23 academic year and mid-February, potentially linked in part to student cost-of-living concerns.